What would need to happen for Bitcoin to be worth $1 million? That number sounds extreme at first, but instead of focusing on excitement or short-term price swings, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer (CIO) at Bitwise Asset Management, is looking at something much bigger. He believes the answer depends on how much of the world’s wealth Bitcoin can absorb over time.
In a recent memo, Hougan laid out a long-term case for how Bitcoin could reach that milestone. His argument isn’t about hype cycles, but rather, market share, global wealth growth, and Bitcoin’s position as a store of value.
Jemi Motesho
Bitcoin vs Gold: The Real Battle for Store of Value
Hougan frames Bitcoin not as a payment tool or a tech experiment, but as a competitor to gold. Today, gold dominates the global store-of-value market. Governments hold it. Central banks rely on it. Investors buy it during uncertain times. It has thousands of years of history behind it.
Bitcoin, by comparison, is still young. Yet it already commands a market value in the trillions during peak cycles. According to Hougan’s estimate, the broader store-of-value market, which includes gold and certain government bonds, stands at roughly $38 trillion today.
The key question isn’t whether Bitcoin replaces gold entirely. It’s whether it can slowly take a slice of that pie.
Hougan argues that the store-of-value market itself is likely to grow significantly over the next decade, potentially reaching $120 trillion as global wealth expands, and investors seek protection from inflation and currency risk. In that scenario, he suggests that Bitcoin capturing about 17 percent of the market could push its price toward $1 million per coin.
“As I see it, the base case- that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has- leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today,” Hougan wrote.
Institutional Adoption Is Changing the Conversation
A few years ago, this kind of projection might have been dismissed outright. But the market looks different today. The approval and launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States opened the door for pension funds, financial advisors, and institutional allocators who previously had limited access to crypto.
Now, Bitcoin is not just traded on crypto exchanges. It sits inside regulated investment vehicles alongside stocks and bonds. That shift has helped position it as a macro asset rather than a speculative side bet.
Institutional money tends to move slowly, but it also tends to stay once it enters. Even small portfolio allocations from large funds can have a significant impact on supply and demand. Since Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, increasing demand can push prices up sharply over time.
For Bitcoin to reach the kind of valuation Hougan outlines, it would need to continue maturing as a trusted store of value. That includes regulatory clarity, secure custody solutions, and growing confidence among both retail and institutional investors.
Jemi Motesho
