Whether it be the crypto space or the broader financial market, one rule of thumb remains unchanged: liquidity is what drives the market. What this means, in simple terms, is that when money is flowing freely, risk assets tend to perform better, and when liquidity tightens, markets across the board begin to feel the pressure.
We saw 2025 reflect that tension with market sentiment marked by extreme caution and growing fear, largely due to a series of macro and geopolitical events that unsettled investors. Now, as 2026 begins, the mood is shifting again, not toward blind optimism, but toward a careful reassessment of what comes next.
That reassessment is anchored in a handful of macro events unfolding this month, with global investors watching them closely as they shape liquidity conditions, influence interest rate expectations, and set the tone for inflation and trade policy.
/1. US Job Report (Non Farm Payroll)
Date: Jan 9
Location: Suitland Federal Centre in Maryland, United States.
Time: 8:30 AM Eastern Time (ET).
The US job report is a crucial economic indicator when assessing the broader financial market, including crypto. It consists of nonfarm payroll growth, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. As the first major labor data release of 2026, it effectively serves as a health check for the US economy and will likely influence the crypto market, either positively or negatively.
Put simply, weaker labour data, especially rising unemployment, could signal economic slowdown or recession concerns. That kind of environment often pushes investors into a risk-off stance, which tends to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. On the flip side, stronger-than-expected numbers could support market confidence, depending on how they shape expectations around interest rates and liquidity.
/2. US CPI (Inflation Data)
Date: Jan 13
Location: Suitland Federal Centre in Maryland, United States.
Time: 8:30 AM Eastern Time (ET).
From an investor's point of view, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is one of the most critical macro indicators for crypto, if not the most important. And this is mainly because when it is on the high side, it suggests the interest rate will stay higher for a long period of time, which is bad news for crypto, as people tend to stay away from risky assets during a high inflation period.
On the other hand, a lower-than-expected inflation print can shift sentiment quickly. It fuels hope for rate cuts and looser financial conditions, similar to what we saw last year, and that kind of shift often provides a tailwind for crypto markets.
/3. World Economic Forum (WEF)
Date: Jan 19 - 23
Location: Davos-Klosters, Switzerland
Time: 09:00 Central European Time (CET).
The WEF is often where the "global agenda" gets its first draft. This year’s theme, "A Spirit of Dialogue," suggests a focus on cooperation after a fractured 2025.
Here, global leaders and central bankers gather to discuss the future of the financial system, including the role of cryptocurrencies and global regulations. With the GENIUS Act recently setting the stage for stablecoins in the US, we expect global leaders to discuss how this fits into the "New Financial Order." If the dialogue shifts toward embracing these regulated frameworks, January could mark a turning point for how the world views—and uses—digital assets.
/4. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Rate Decision
Date: Jan 23
Location: Head Office in Tokyo, Japan
Time: Late morning/early afternoon Japan Standard Time (JST).
Before its recent rate hikes, the Bank of Japan was the last major central bank still maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, with near-zero interest rates and extended lending programs, even as other central banks aggressively raised rates to fight inflation. That stance made Japan an important source of global liquidity for years.
Now, recent BoJ rate hikes have acted as a trigger for risk-off moves, pushing some investors to reduce exposure to digital assets. If the upcoming rate decision points to another increase, markets could see renewed volatility. In a more extreme scenario, a sustained tightening cycle could pressure crypto prices further and revive fears of another prolonged downturn, or what many would call a crypto winter.
/5. US Fed (FOMC) Meeting
Date: Jan 27 - 28
Location: Eccles Building in Washington, D.C., United States.
Time: 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is where the US Federal Reserve sets the direction for monetary policy, including decisions around interest rates, balance sheet management, and broader liquidity conditions. For crypto markets, this meeting often matters less for the rate decision itself and more for the tone of the Fed’s messaging.
When the Fed signals a hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and keeping rates higher for longer, liquidity tends to tighten. That environment usually weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, as investors become more cautious and capital shifts toward safer yields. On the other hand, a more dovish tone, even without an immediate rate cut, can boost market sentiment by reinforcing expectations of easier financial conditions ahead.
In short, the January FOMC meeting will help set the macro narrative for the early part of the year. How the Fed frames inflation, growth, and future policy moves could shape risk appetite across markets, and crypto is often one of the first places those expectations show up.
Oluwajeminipe Fasheun-Motesho
