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Imagine applying for permanent residence in Canada only to learn you could wait more than 10 years for a decision that's statistically more likely to end in rejection than approval.

That's the reality facing thousands of artists, athletes and cultural professionals who applied through Canada's Self-Employed Persons Program (SEPP).

Now, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) says the programme is "no longer fit for purpose." An internal evaluation published on July 28 cites long processing times, high refusal rates and limited economic impact, while recommending that the programme be redesigned rather than scrapped.

For current applicants, nothing changes immediately. For future applicants, the pathway is almost certain to look different.

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Why Canada wants to replace the programme

IRCC's evaluation concludes that the programme's problems go beyond processing delays. According to the department, broad eligibility rules and unclear objectives have made it difficult for immigration officers to assess applications consistently or identify candidates who deliver strong economic outcomes.

And over the past decade, the programme recorded an average refusal rate of 69%, meaning nearly seven out of ten applicants were unsuccessful. Applicants who applied after July 2022 now face projected waits of more than 10 years, while roughly 8,000 applications remain in the backlog.

Although the programme continues to deliver cultural and social benefits, IRCC says its current design no longer aligns with Canada's economic immigration priorities. The department has accepted the evaluation's main recommendation and will explore a replacement with clearer objectives and measurable outcomes.

Why some applicants could wait more than 10 years

Part of the backlog comes down to capacity. Canada's 2026 Immigration Levels Plan allocates just 500 permanent residence admissions to the Federal Business category, which includes both the Self-Employed Persons Program and the Start-Up Visa Program.

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