- China’s smartphone market plateaued in 2025, declining 0.8% year-on-year as rising memory costs and cautious consumers slowed demand.
- Vivo and Huawei faced shipment declines due to cost pressures and reduced low-end model volumes, while Apple surged in Q4 on strong iPhone 17 sales.
- Despite late-year competition, Huawei emerged as the overall leader in 2025, highlighting the importance of brand strength and premium offerings in a maturing market.
In 2025, China’s smartphone market shrank, yet the competitive picture didn't move in the way many expected. Even as overall shipments declined in the region, Apple posted strong late-year growth, and Huawei still finished the year as the market’s top brand. That's not a contradiction worth glossing over.
After years of quick expansion, China’s smartphone industry has entered a phase where growth no longer lifts all players equally. Penetration is high, replacement cycles are longer, but incremental upgrades are no longer enough to trigger mass demand. What remains is a more selective market, where fewer buyers are upgrading and the reasons they choose to do so matter more.
The data makes that shift even harder to ignore. After growing 5.6% in 2024, smartphone shipments in China fell 0.8% year on year in 2025, according to IDC. For a market that once expanded at double-digit rates, the change signals not a temporary dip but a structural slowdown.
IDC estimates total shipments reached about 285 million units in 2025, slightly below the year before. While the year began with support from Lunar New Year demand and government subsidies, that momentum faded as subsidies tapered and consumer sentiment softened. By the second half, shipment volumes were weakening across most segments.
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Rising costs forced brands to rethink volume-first strategies
Rising memory prices amplified the slowdown. Higher component costs pushed up production expenses and forced Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to reconsider pricing, margins, and product mix. As costs rose and consumers became more price sensitive, aggressive volume expansion became harder to justify. That pressure showed up clearly among market leaders.
Vivo, which led China’s smartphone market in 2024 with a 17.2% share, saw shipments decline 6.6% in 2025, pulling its share down to 16.2%. Huawei also recorded a pullback, with shipments down 1.9% year on year. In both cases, the declines reflected the same constraints: higher component costs and a more cautious buying environment.
To protect profitability, OEMs, including Vivo and Huawei, scaled back shipments of low-end models. These devices typically drive volume but offer thin margins, and in a rising-cost environment, they became a liability rather than a lever. What the data suggests isn't just a slowdown, but a filtering process. As costs rose, volume-heavy strategies weakened first.
Apple’s Q4 surge shows how demand is being reshaped in China
Apple’s performance late in the year made that filtering effect especially clear. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Apple’s shipments in China rose about 21.5% year on year to roughly 16 million units, giving it around 21.1% market share for the quarter. Demand for the iPhone 17 series pushed Apple to the top of the quarterly rankings, even as overall market volumes declined.
This wasn't simply a strong product cycle. It was a signal about where demand still exists. In a plateaued market, demand becomes less elastic at the high end. Consumers who continue to upgrade are more likely to prioritise durability, ecosystem value, and resale potential. That dynamic favours premium brands, even as overall volumes shrink.
By year-end, Apple was tied with Vivo at 16.2% full-year market share and recorded the fastest growth among the top five vendors in Q4. The takeaway isn't that Apple is immune to China’s slowdown, but that premium demand compresses upward when growth disappears.
Emmanuel Oyedeji
Why Huawei still won the year in China despite Apple’s momentum
Despite Apple’s late surge, Huawei emerged as the overall market leader in China in 2025. That outcome mattered less because of where Huawei finished, and more because of how it got there.
Huawei’s advantage was built earlier in the year, when price adjustments, mid-to-high-end product momentum, and government subsidies supported demand. More importantly, its portfolio was better aligned with a rising-cost environment.
Its strength in premium and upper mid-range devices helped offset broader market weakness. While budget-heavy portfolios struggled as costs rose, Huawei’s lineup was able to sustain demand even as prices edged higher. In that sense, Huawei didn't win by chasing volume, but by defending relevance where demand still existed.
IDC analysts point to brand strength as a key factor behind the relative resilience of both Huawei and Apple. As smartphones became more expensive, consumers increasingly chose premium names they were already familiar with.
What does this mean for China’s smartphone market in 2026?
China’s smartphone market is now firmly in a mature phase. Rising memory prices, cautious consumers, and limited subsidy support make a return to volume-driven growth unlikely.
If component costs continue to rise in 2026, OEMs face a narrowing set of trade-offs. Protecting margins may require accepting lower shipment volumes, while chasing affordability risks eroding profitability. The brands most exposed are those still dependent on low-end scale to drive growth.
The larger shift is already underway. China’s smartphone market is no longer defined by how fast it can grow, but by how demand concentrates when growth disappears. In that environment, brand power and premium positioning matter more than ever.
Emmanuel Oyedeji
