The U.S. PC market rebounded in Q1 2025, but it may not last
Expected shipment declines this year reflect not only softer spending but also a slower sense of urgency around upgrading.
After years of post-pandemic ups and downs, the U.S. PC market is off to a strong start in 2025. But while the numbers look healthy, it’s a response to something else entirely, and the underlying story suggests a more measured year ahead.
Shipments of PC (desktops and notebooks) rose 15% year-on-year in the first quarter, reaching 16.9 million units, according to new data from Canalys. It’s a solid rebound driven in part by proactive sell-in from vendors anticipating new tariffs.
However, a significant portion of the Q1 growth came from inventory being pushed into the channel early after tariff tensions between the U.S. and China reignited in April. That stockpiling now threatens to weigh the market down for the rest of the year, because that buildup now needs to be cleared, and could naturally temper growth in the coming quarters.
As a result, full-year shipment growth is forecast at just under 2%, with 2026 expected to see a slight pickup to 4%, as more organisations and users move to refresh their devices ahead of Windows 10’s end-of-support deadline in October 2025.
Still, some vendors capitalized well on the early-year opportunity. Apple recorded the strongest growth among major players, with shipments up 29% year-on-year. Lenovo followed with a 20% increase, gaining ground in both commercial and consumer segments. HP and Dell maintained their lead in market share, each posting steady growth – 13% and 8% respectively. Even Acer, often a quiet player, posted a solid 16% gain
One of the market’s key strengths this year is commercial demand. Businesses—especially small and mid-sized firms—continue to upgrade their fleets, leading to an expected 8% rise in commercial PC shipments. “The pace of transition to Windows 11 among U.S. businesses have been a positive sign,” said Ishan Dutt, Research Director at Canalys. “We expect this to accelerate in the second half as Microsoft steps up its awareness efforts.”
Consumer demand, meanwhile, remains more cautious. Shipments are expected to decline 4% this year, reflecting not only softer spending but also a slower sense of urgency around upgrading.
Still, the outlook isn’t bleak. The commercial side is carrying real momentum, and the groundwork is being laid for a larger wave of upgrades into 2026. The challenge for vendors and retailers now is to meet consumers where they are—with simpler messaging, more intuitive product offerings, and a clearer reason to upgrade.
This may not be a dramatic boom, but it’s a steady, manageable recovery. And in a market that’s been anything but predictable, that kind of consistency might be exactly what’s needed.
