Global smartphone shipments are projected to decline 5% YoY in 2023, reaching 1.2 billion units, the lowest level in almost a decade according to Counterpoint Research's Smartphone 360 Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast. However, shipments are expected to increase by 3% YoY in Q4 2023, reaching 312 million units.
While North America (NAM) and Europe's smartphone shipments are expected to remain stagnant, emerging markets such as India, the Middle East, and Africa (MEA) are forecasted to break out from their declines and drive growth in the smartphone market from Q4 2023.
Per vendor performance Apple, the usual market leader in Q4 with its newly launched series, is expected to record a volume decline of 3% YoY in Q4 2023, mainly due to Huawei’s aggressive expansion in China and prolonged delay in smartphone upgrades in Japan.
Looking ahead, the shipment growth forecasted in the fourth quarter is anticipated to continue into 2024 growing by 3% YoY. This growth is anticipated to be driven by recovery focused on emerging markets, backed by increasing consumer confidence and improving macroeconomic conditions.
Meanwhile, India is predicted to become a new growth focus, with Apple's shipments in the country expected to grow by 23% YoY in 2024. Huawei is also projected to continue its growth, recording a 37% YoY increase in 2024.